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A recent article details Ug99, a stem rust of wheat, one of the most significant threats to global food security at present. Ug99 is a new variety of wheat rust fungus that has potential to spread throughout the major wheat growing regions of the world. Currently it is making its way east from Kenya through Ethiopia and Yemen after damaging crops in Kenya and Ethiopia. Once the fungus attaches to the above-ground wheat plant 50-100% crop loss can occur resulting in a substantial financial hit for farmers as well as decreased global wheat supplies, which in turn leads to increased costs for the consumer. Additionally, famines could occur if supplies are reduced in particular regions such as north Africa, as well as west and central Asia.
First discovered in Uganda in 1999, Ug99 is likely to infect wheat fields to catastrophic proportions, especially in some developing countries where wheat is a staple crop. According to Rick Ward of Cornell University, wheat rust “will translate into widespread food insecurity and civil unrest.” Some fields in east Africa, Kenya particularly, have experienced up to 80% losses.
In a normal setting, scientists’ ability to counter widespread plant diseases including fungi could be achieved by use of pesticides, by traditional plant breeding, and by genetic engineering. Unfortunately, however, Ug99 is highly infectious and thus has the ability to spread quickly through the movement of seeds and by normal weather (primarily wind) and thus remains difficult to contain; the use of fungicides, besides having limited effectiveness, is too expensive for most developing countries; also, traditional breeding takes many years of crossing and selecting; and genetic engineering requires the availability of effective resistance genes and of effective biosafety regulations. But there is hope because plant resistances have been found to be somewhat effective against Ug99 and have already been successfully bred into certain wheat varieties for certain regions. These varieties are currently acceptable to farmers in some regions, but they are not resistant to all rust strains, and some are still susceptible to Ug99 under certain local climatic conditions.
Due to the relatively rapid pace at which the fungus is spreading throughout the world, short-term solutions must be implemented until the time when durable resistance genes can be successfully transferred to wheat and distributed to farmers. Long-term solutions are irrelevant if Ug99 spreads quicker than anticipated, as suggested by Dr. Norman Borlaug of the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative (“BGRI”). Unfortunately, once disease-resistance is bred into modern wheat varieties, it will take years to grow enough seed and subsequently distribute it to farmers in need. And Dr. Borlaug, winner of the Nobel Prize for his wheat breeding work since the late 1940s in Mexico that ultimately led to the Green Revolution, should know. It was Dr. Borlaug who was instrumental in raising alarm some 7-8 years ago, not least of all because his early success in wheat breeding focused on rust resistance. His work and that of many colleagues at CIMMYT and Indian and Pakistani breeders, among others, led to a 50 year period during which stem rust was a minor problem.
There appear to be very few short-term solutions to this problem despite scientists’ confidence that long-term solutions can be had. Whether rust-resistant seeds will arrive soon enough remains but a hope, but given the severity of Ug99 that prospect seems unlikely. In the short term, expensive fungicides are one option for farmers who can afford to purchase them, who are equipped to apply them safely, and who are farming in a relatively well developed area with well trained agricultural extension systems. Many farmers in developing countries, especially in the poorer areas which are on the likely Ug99 path are unlikely to be capable of purchasing and using the fungicides effectively, so funding agencies should consider allocating increased funds for this purpose; concurrently, agricultural chemical companies should consider more targeted tiered pricing of fungicides, thus significantly reducing the cost to lower income countries.
Although fungicides represent a mere temporary solution as part of a more comprehensive approach to a lasting problem, they have potential to increase marketable yields quickly thus increasing farmers’ incomes and keeping food supplies steady. If wheat farmers continue to experience low yields they will be less capable of turning a profit and sustaining their farms into the future thus rendering efforts to engineer rust-resistant seeds an increasingly futile effort if there will be fewer farms left to supply. Farmers experiencing severe crop damage would surely be willing to try fungicides if money were granted for its purchase in developing countries.
If fungicides can be provided to farmers in developing countries some level of education may be necessary. Farmers must be aware of the optimal times to spray upon consideration of the particular variety of wheat they grow. Optimal wheat yields can be achieved by ensuring fungicides are utilized early before Ug99 or other rusts have an opportunity to infiltrate farmers’ fields. Improper application of fungicides in the past has led to yield losses and health risks for farmers, so education is key. This can be accomplished by routine field inspections by qualified individuals and by ensuring farmers’ access to necessary information.
Of course fungicides are merely one component of a short-term solution to threats posed by wheat rust, but if funding agencies realize the seriousness of Ug99 they may be on board with allocating emergency funds for certain regions that have been hit hardest. Currently billions of fungus spores continue to blow east which threatens global food supplies as well as the livelihoods of wheat farmers. Something must be done now to prevent the aforementioned problems until successful Ug99-resistant wheat varieties can be deployed and marketed to farmers throughout the world.
BGRI and its partners are currently attempting to transfer resistance genes from rice to wheat, but this component of the project will take 10 years or more, even if government regulations for the field testing of genetically modified wheat (biosafety regulations) become more science-based and permissible. One presumed reason why the BGRI is not focusing on genetically modified wheat, which could lead to the faster development of Ug99 resistant wheat, is due to the tremendous regulatory roadblocks and resistance to adopt genetically modified crops in general and wheat in particular. Onerous biosafety regulations already increase the development cost of genetically modified crops by millions of dollars and delay the delivery of many crops, including that of Golden Rice by 5 years or more. More efficient, science-based regulations are therefore necessary to combat Ug99 as quickly as possible.
